Despite waning belief from the football-going public, and Collingwood marching to the minor premiership on the back of a 20-2 home and away season, that included the highest final percentage of all-time, 181.75, Geelong is in far better shape at the real business end of the season, and goes into the big clash with the confidence of knowing it is the one to have inflicted both defeats on the Magpies this season.

The Cats’ impressive recent run began in round 24 when it trounced Collingwood by 96 points. The Magpies may have already been looking ahead to the finals, but there is no way they would’ve wanted a losing margin to blow out like it did. The next week they still looked well below their best in holding off West Coast in the qualifying final (82-62), while Geelong crushed Hawthorn (98-67). After both had the week off, Collingwood again did it tough, the Hawks leading for most of their preliminary final before making some costly errors and letting the Magpies in to snatch victory (68-65). Geelong, on the other hand, breezed through against the Eagles (117-69).

Some would prefer the far tougher Collingwood route into the grand final, preparation for the intense battle to come. But no matter how easy Geelong appeared to do it last week, it has the hardened soldiers ready to get down and dirty when they need to. No team does it better. The Cats won a real scrap in round 9against the Magpies by three points, but could’ve won by more, registering 25 scoring shots to 17.

Spearhead Travis Cloke played a massive part in the Magpies getting over the Hawks, but in Harry Taylor, Tom Lonergan and Matthew Scarlett, the Cats have a number of high-quality opponents capable of limiting his input. Down the other end, big Geelong forwards Tom Hawkins and James Podsiadly are in terrific form, while key Collingwood defender Ben Reid remains under an injury cloud.

While both sides have out and out stars in the middle, the Magpies with the 2011 Brownlow medallist Dane Swan, tough Cat Joel Selwood may have the edge in the clinches in what could be a real dour struggle in the wet. He’s worth backing for most possessions and the Norm Smith Medal as best-on-ground.

Tip: Geelong by 1-19 at $4.

Admittedly, that game was in Perth, and during a mini-slump by the Cats which they have certainly recovered from. The Eagles led by 35 points at half-time before holding off the fast-finishing visitors by eight points (96-88). West Coast’s ruck duo, Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui (53 hitouts), proved a little too much for Brad Ottens (29), midfielders Andrew Embley (32 touches), Matt Priddis (29) and Daniel Kerr (24) marginally better than Cameron Ling (30), Paul Chapman (29) and Joel Corey (28) and the defence holding together in the face of Geelong winning the inside-50s (52-43).

West Coast will put up another strong fight at the ‘G, where it pushed Collingwood (62-82) a fortnight ago. But, a rested Geelong, after flexing its muscle against Hawthorn in their qualifying final (96-65), should be capable of running out the game a lot better than the Eagles coming off a gruelling hitout against Carlton (101-98) – and have too much finals experience against a side that while still has some 2006 premiership stars, also has a few youngsters still to prove themselves under pressure on the big stage.

The Eagles’ attack again looks dangerous, but has to contend with an extremely tight-knit Cats defence that can cover the best talls and smalls an opposition has to offer. Down the other end, Eagles fullback Darren Glass will be able to give the big Cats’ forwards a bigger challenge than what the Hawks could muster, but they simply have too many options, with James Podsiadly, Tom Hawkins and Ottens contesting in the air and Steve Johnson and Travis Varcoe mopping up. Geelong won’t give West Coast a start this time and could still come home strongly to run away with it.

Tip: Geelong by over 39.5 points at $2.4.

Franklin, who defied the odds to kick four goals last week in a 36-point win, and averages a tick over four against the Magpies, will be the obvious danger, along with Cyril Rioli, but it doesn’t matter how good that pair can be, the Hawks simply need more weapons in attack. Hawthorn won five of six against Collingwood between 2007 and 2010, but it usually had Jarryd Roughead to free ‘Buddy’ up substantially. Of course he wasn’t there when the Hawks were blown away by the Magpies in round 15 (106-65) after being held to two goals to half-time, and will miss again.

The battle in the midfield will be a beauty – Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell and Jordan Lewis versus Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas and Luke Ball – and the Hawks could certainly come out of it even, but going forward they will need plenty of  Franklin and Rioli magic to make the Magpies’ defensive brick wall of Ben Reid, Chris Tarrant, Harry O’Brien, Heath Shaw, Leon Davis and Nick Maxwell disappear. That back six was brilliant against West Coast in their last-start qualifying final win.

Hawthorn’s backline stood up against Sydney, led by Josh Gibson’s record 21 spoils, but has a monumental task of stopping both Travis Cloke, who grabbed 12 marks, including six contested last time the two sides met, and fellow key forward Chris Dawes from ruling the air, and preventing the fleet-footed Andrew Krakouer, Steele Sidebottom and Jarryd Blair pouncing on any loose balls.

Tip: Collingwood by 20-39 points at $4.

Playmaker Bryce Gibbs has now joined key forwards Matthew Kruezer and Jarrad Waite on the sidelines, which puts a big dent in their chances of taking on Geelong in next week’s preliminary final. West Coast, on the other hand, has named Daniel Kerr, which, if he plays, will give the home side a major boost in the middle as the side takes on a red-hot Marc Murphy, who led the way in a 62-point win over Essendon last week with 37 touches, along with Heath Scotland (27), Anthony Carrazzo (26) and Chris Judd (19).

Carlton dominated against the Bombers, registering 44 scoring shots to 24, but only tallied five more forward-50 entries (62-57), which must be a worry for the visitors with a far more potent attack to contend with this week. Eagle talls Josh Kennedy, Quentin Lynch and Jack Darling and creative smalls Mark Nicoski and Mark LeCras were kept in check as their side was beaten by Collingwood (62-82) last week, but, will be looking to fire against what is still a suspect Blues defence with an underdone Michael Jamison and a promising yet still inexperienced Lachie Henderson in the key posts.

The Eagles’ defence, led superbly by Darren Glass, performed well under pressure against the Magpies, and will have a much easier job with no Kruezer and Waite to deal with. While Carlton was victorious on its last trip West to play West Coast, albeit in 2010, but the Eagles soared against the Blues in Melbourne in round 14 (103-67) and will be confident of getting the job done again on home soil.

Tip: West Coast by Over 15.5 points at $1.97.

Whether in the midfield or up forward, Hawthorn has few players, if any, capable of stopping Goodes, who has been on fire since round 18, particularly in the last three weeks, against Geelong (30 possessions, 9 inside-50s), Brisbane (29, 11) and St Kilda (25, 6), in last week’s upset elimination final win. The Hawks, who may rotate opponents on him, can find some solace in the fact the last time Goodes played at the ‘G’ he was kept in check by Richmond (16 disposals) and the Swans thrashed 56-99.

Goodes won’t be the only concern for a Hawthorn outfit rocked by Geelong (67-98) in their qualifying final last week, with young Sam Reid (8 marks last week, including 5 contested) and Ryan O’Keefe (4 goals) set to again test the Hawks’ short, suspect defence that was obliterated by the Cats. While Hawthorn topped the marks’ tally (103-61), the dominance of the Cats’ key forwards, Tom Hawkins and James Podsiadly, helped their side to a telling 25-11 win in contested marking.

A hard-at-it Hawthorn though didn’t finish third for no reason, and crushed Sydney (106-60) in Sydney when the teams last met, in round 9, Franklin starring with 6 goals and 28 touches. The Hawks are set to name the spearhead despite his dodgy knee. But if he doesn’t play, they have shown they can win without him, booting 23 goals against Essendon in round 14. They won’t need to kick that many to beat the low-scoring Swans, provided their midfield, led by Sam Mitchell, can win their battle and ease the pressure on the backline  - which it is capable of doing. But will still need David Hale and Cyril Rioli to step up in attack.

Tip: Hawthorn by 1-19 points at $4.

The Blues ($1.38) will go in as favourites, having finished fifth, three spots ahead of the Bombers ($3.10). But they have some serious personnel concerns, with star ruck-forward Matthew Kruezer joining fellow marking target Jarrad Waite on the sidelines, and full-back Michael Jamison returning but still under an injury cloud.

Fortunately for the Blues, the luck of the Irish may be on their side with Setanta O’hAilpin brought back last week and kicked four goals – out of nine in an 18-point loss to St Kilda (68-86) – as Andrew Walker, Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett combined for just two behinds. Lachie Henderson’s move to defence has also been a success, the ex-Lion keeping Saints skipper Nick Riewoldt to just nine touches and no goals.

The Bombers, who had the bye in the final round, will feel they can still control the air though with Dustin Fletcher back to assist Tayte Pears and Jake Carlisle in defence, and Michael Hurley to remain the spearhead in attack with support from Paddy Ryder and David Hille, when they’re not battling a now lone wolf Robert Warnock in the ruck.

But, Carlton’s strength, of course, is it’s abundance of midfielders, and they led the way in a 74-point romp of Essendon (153-79) in round 18. Chris Judd (33 disposals), Marc Murphy (30), Mitch Robinson (28), Bryce Gibbs (27) and Heath Scotland (27) dominated then and will look to do so again – despite Essendon skipper Jobe Watson being back this time – while Betts (8 goals in that previous clash) and Walker (4) will hope to rediscover their best form and cash in from any good work upfield.

Tip: Carlton by 20-39 points by $4.

There is little between the pair, both finishing with 12.5 wins, the Saints edging the Swans with a marginally better percentage. While they have superstars floating through their forwardlines – Nick Riewoldt for St Kilda and Adam Goodes for Sydney – they rarely score heavily, defensive pressure instead the hallmarks of their game. Both have topped 100 points just six times this season, with both averaging 86. The Saints though are ranked fourth for least points conceded (1677), the Swans seventh (1735), both having allowed an opposition to top 100 points just three times.

Only one of the sides has scored over 100 points in their last 10 clashes. St Kilda’s won six (96-88, 94-93, 80-65, 51-49, 97-71, 52-50), Sydney four (83-68, 102-67, 82-65, 96-65), including their match-up three weeks ago at ANZ Stadium when the home side racked up 10.23 to 10.8 on the back of ruckman Shane Mumford dominating the hit-outs against Ben McEvoy (54-25), and winning the clearances (50-32) and contested possession (168-132). But it was the Saints’ only bad in their last 15, and one of just four losses in that time, the other three coming against Collingwood (2) and Geelong.

Mumford again looms large, as does Goodes, who is in Brownlow Medal-winning form – playing in the middle. If the Saints can find a way to negate those two enough, the Swans may struggle. Their backline, minus Heath Grundy, looks susceptible having to contend with a fired-up Riewoldt, Justin Koschitzke, Adam Schnieder and Steven Milne, while the focal points in attack may be youngster Sam Reid and regular defender Lewis Roberts-Thompson, which does not auger well against a Saints defence comprising Sam Fisher, Brendan Goddard, Sam Gilbert and Zac Dawson.

Tip: St Kilda by 1-19 points at $4.

Last week’s results alone show the match could be closer than many think. While Collingwood suffered just its second loss of the season in being obliterated by Geelong (53-149), the Eagles tuned up for their return to the playoffs by smashing Adelaide (145-50). West Coast amassed a staggering 60 clearances as ruckmen Dean Cox (35) and Nic Naitanui (19) kept up their season average of 54 hit-outs a game. Collingwood could only get 19 – and just 6 possessions – from an out-of-sorts Darren Jolly as the side registered 35 inside-50s to the Cats’ 69.

The Magpies may not have gotten out of second gear against Geelong, but a 96-point loss is hardly the sort of form they’d want to be taking into a final, even if it is one in which they’re playing an interstate side who hasn’t beaten them at the ‘G’ since 1995 and lost their last match-up there in round 12 by 52 points (53-105) – incidentally, the Eagles only game on the hallowed turf all season.

Collingwood has some major ‘ins’ to bolster its stocks, in particular the backline, with Nick Maxwell, Leon Davis and Heath Shaw rejoining Ben Reid, Chris Tarrant and Harry O’Brien as they battle the West Coast’s dangerous attack of Quentin Lynch, Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras, Mark Nicoski, Jack Darling and a resting Naitanui. For the Eagles, Daniel Kerr makes a timely return to the midfield, and with Matt Priddis, Andrew Embley and Luke Shuey, will give Magpies’ Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan, Luke Ball and Sharrod Wellingham a real run for their money, especially with Dale Thomas suspended.

Tip:Collingwood by

The Cats won by five points in round 12 (88-83) after trailing by 17 points at three quarter-time, and by 19 (117-98) in round 5 after trailing by eight at half-time. The Hawks also led at the last change of their round 15 2010 epic, by six points, before going down by two (83-85) and led by four goals at the main break in round 2 but ultimately lost by nine points (91-100). Hawthorn though will feel it may be able to finally turn the tables – it’s a final afterall and Geelong hasn’t beaten it in one since 1963, losing their 2008 GF, 2000 EF, 1991 SF and 1989 GF clashes.

In their most recent match-up, the Cats got the upper-hand through key forward James Podsiadly, who capitalised on the Hawks’ undermanned defence, booting six goals. And though they made the most of their own opportunities when going forward – Lance Franklin slotting four majors – the Hawks simply struggled to get the ball side their attacking 50m enough (38-52). This was despite them dominating the midfield, Sam Mitchell (38 disposals), Liam Shiels (35), Brad Sewell (28), Jordan Lewis (26) on top of James Kelly (24), Corey Enright (23), Steve Johnson (21) and Jimmy Bartel (20).

The sides’ lead-up to the game couldn’t be any more contrasting – Hawthorn held off wooden spooner Gold Coast (106-97) after resting keys Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne, Grant Birchall, Max Bailey, Sewell, Lewis, Franklin and Rioli, while Geelong held little back as it blew minor premier Collingwood away by 96 points (149-53). It is debatable which preparation is better for a final, but after a long home and away season, the fresher Hawks might just be able to get the job done this time.

Tip: Hawthorn by 1-19 points at $4.5.

If momentum counts for anything, the Tigers might just be able to snatch another win to end another frustrating season on a high. They’ve won their last three – against Sydney (99-56), Melbourne (117-110) and Adelaide in Adelaide (99-121) – with Trent Cotchin leading the way in the middle, and Dustin Martin, Brad Miller and Tyrone Vickery keeping the scoreboard ticking over and taking the heat off a dodgy defence.

Just when they got a whiff of an unlikely finals spot after a huge win over Fremantle, the Kangaroos were floored last week by St Kilda (70-135) – a loss that might just have taken enough wind out of their sails to allow the Tigers to pounce. North has put a host of players in cotton-wool, including Daniel Wells, Jack Ziebell, Levi Greenwood and Lachie Hansen, though big Hamish McIntosh will be keen to make a statement in his long-awaited first game of the season, be it in the ruck or in attack.

In fact, the Kangaroos’ forwardline will be a major concern for the Tigers. Richmond won their last clash (112-103), in round 5, but Drew Petrie booted six goals and will be a danger again, along with McIntosh and Aaron Edwards. But, with Cotchin, Martin, Shane Tuck, Brett Deledio and Nathan Foley firing, Richmond should have edge in the midfield – with only Andrew Swallow a truly consistent performer there for the Roos and their younger players perhaps deflated after last week.

Tip: Richmond by 1-19 points at $4.5.