***UPDATE 24/7/2010***
In the antepost market we were looking at Cape Blanco and Workforce as being the two strongest contenders. We were hoping to get J. Murtagh riding Cape Blanco but his jockey is C O’Donoghue while Workforce got Ryan Moore as expected.
There are currently not many comments from the trainers and jockeys except that Harbinger looks to be a threat, currently positioned at second in the betting market.
This race is almost certainly going to be between Cape Blanco, Workforce and Harbinger. With the strong comments from Harbinger and his position in the market he may be the one to choose. I still feel that Workforce’s odds are a little low when we look at the strength of his competitors and it is certainly possible that other two could outperform him.
With Cape Blanco having the highest odds he offers the most value in a race that is going to be very close. My final decision would be to place a dutch bet across Harbinger and Cape Blanco to take the value that they both offer over Workforce.
***END UPDATE***
This race is Britain’s most prestigious flat racing event, open to any horse aged three or older. It is raced at Ascot over a distance of one mile and four furlongs. Commonly referred to as the King George race, many of its winners go on to have successful careers.
This race was a combination of two races originally run at Ascot in the late 1940′s, and was first run in 1951. Originally sponsored by De Beers, Betfair took over the sponsorship in 2009 and the prize money was raised to £1,000,000 making it the second richest race in Britain, the Derby Stakes taking top spot.
There are currently forty entries for this big event and if we are going to find the winner then we need to start narrowing down the possibilities.
Since 2003, six out of seven winners have been the favourite in the betting market. This shows that the general public have a lot of understanding about which horse will win this race. Of course this does not mean that it will happen again but it is likely that the betting market will be a very strong predictor for us to use.
It is also useful to know that the runners which have been competitive in this race have only twice, in the last seven years, been ranked higher than fifth in the betting market.
As you will find with other major races a good break is needed for a horse to win in such a high level of competition, however to much of a break can prove detrimental to the performance. Usually a between twenty and forty days is about right and the King George looks to be no exception.
By removing all the runners that have not had a break within this criteria we reduce the field to twenty four, I have kept Workforce as a contender, although he has had a slightly longer break of 49 days, because he is currently the antepost favourite and as we know this is going to be a very strong predictor.
No runner older than four has won over the last seven years and we can safely remove the five horses in our contenders list that are aged five years and older, bringing the competition to 19 runners.
I am now going to remove runners with odds higher than 50 in the antepost betting. Although it is possible that these could win the race it is very unlikely and will reduce the amount of contenders down to just five.
With so much money available, trainers will prepare horses especially for this, often entering multiple runners. Trainers that have proven to perform well and have runners this year are A P O’Brien, Saeed Bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute. A P O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute each have two runners in our contenders list.
This race seldom has a winner that leads from the beginning, a horse usually tracks the leaders and then takes all in the last and the pattern is likely to be repeated this year. Knowing this we can remove front-runners from the contenders list. Finding front-runners can be done by going through each horse’s previous form and seeing how often it has been the leader in the race.
Let’s take a more detailed look at our contenders.
Cape Blanco
Cape Blanco has an excellent record of five wins from six runs. The non-winning race was likely caused by being bumped early on and he was unable to come back afterwards. Cape Blanco likes to settle behind the leader which is perfect positioning for this race. His speed figure suggests that obtaining this position is not going to be a problem and having raced well on both soft and good-to-firm going, any changes in the ground conditions are unlikely to be able to cause him serious difficulties. A very high class runner and if J Murtagh is his jockey on the day then his chances are strong. Bet on Cape Blanco.
Daryakana
Daryakana is trained by A De Royper-Dupre and is a French runner. He showed that he could race at this level by winning his race on December 13th 2009 at Sha Tin. On returning to race in France for his last two runs, although being competitive, he has been unable to take the lead from behind the leaders. He has a tendency to get held up in the rear and in a race of such quality this could prove to be too much for him to overcome. Although he is likely to make an appearance in the performance of this race it looks like the class of the other runners may be just too high for him to reach. Bet on Daryakana.
Harbinger
A very strong performer but making a jump in class in this race could prove problematic, although second place in the antepost betting market suggests that it won’t. He likes to track the leaders and the speed rating suggests that this position will be obtainable for him and suits the style of the race. Ryan Moore is the only jockey to have ridden him so far and I would be cautious if any other jockey were to be riding him on the day. I feel that he may be a little under-exposed at this level which, despite his betting market position, could hamper him and my preference would be to choose others instead. Bet on Harbinger.
Jan Vermeer
We saw Jan Vermeer recently at the Irish Derby where he came two lengths behind Cape Blanco in third position. Previous to that he raced in the Investec Derby where he came fourth, eleven lengths behind the winner. Both of these races were of a similar class to today’s race and while his performance has not been bad, he has failed to live up to this level of racing so far. He is slightly volatile in his chosen position in the field and he find himself leading. If he leads in this race then it is likely to be the end of his winning chances. With A P O’Brien also running Cape Blanco, among others, it is likely that Jan Vermeer is being used as a running partner rather than with a serious chance of winning and my preference would be to stay away from him. Bet on Jan Vermeer.
Workforce
Workforce is a Michael Stoute runner and currently favourite in the antepost betting market. In just three races he has earned over £800,000. One of his races was at the Investec Derby, a top quality race, which he won by a massive seven lengths. This is undoubtedly the reason for his favourite position in the market. Ryan Moore has been this runner’s only rider so far and I would suggest that he is likely to choose him over Harbinger. What we haven’t seen is whether he can race two highly competitive races back to back and perform well in both. He certainly has plenty of speed to win this race and if his jockey keeps him behind the leaders at the beginning there is a strong chance that he will take the top position. I wouldn’t want to be going against him in this race. Bet on Workforce.
Overview
This is, without a doubt, going to be an exciting race. The two strong contenders for me are Cape Blanco and Workforce, currently the first and third favourites in the betting market. I would like to see J Murtagh on Cape Blanco and Ryan Moore on Workforce. Any different jockeys and the situation could well be different. The odds on Workforce are pretty low at the moment and a dutch bet between the two could be the best way. Alternatively a win bet on Workforce and an each-way on Cape Blanco is an option. My preference though is to wait until closer to the time and see how the odds fluctuate before making the decision.
Trainer and jockey comments are going to be important in confirming our selections and closer to the race I shall write an update taking into account the latest information and jockey declarations.