On the 17th June 2010 we will once again have the pleasure of watching one of the biggest British races of the year in the form of the Ascot Gold Cup. The final declarations for the race will not be made for a while but using the runners who have been entered we can look at past information in order to allow us to narrow the field down to some contenders.
The Gold Cup is a Group 1 flat race that is open to thoroughbred horses aged four years or older and is run over a distance of 2 miles and 4 furlongs. The event is the most prestigious in the British racing calendar for horses that specialise in racing over long distances and has been raced every year since 1807.
With 46 runners currently being entered into this race it is important to look at some statistical information in order to get an idea of the type of runner that wins this particular race. Let us begin with the age of the runners. There have been horses aged between 4 and 10 in the last 12 years of races. There has never yet been a winner aged 9 or 10 years old and 83% of the winners have been 6 years or less.
Colts, fillies and mares have never won a race with all the wins going to entire or gelded runners.
This is a long distance race and so is not suited to horses who lead. These horses are usually used to set the pace and eventually tire before the finishing line. Any runners that are likely to lead would be best avoided.
Official ratings can also be used to help us narrow down the field. With 88% of the previous winners coming from the top 3 official rating ranks and no runner having ever won from a rank of 7 or lower, we have a very important tool here.
Finally the betting market itself is a strong indicator of the most likely runner to win the race. Staying in line with horse racing in general, 33% of the favourites have won this prestigious event but a horse ranked higher than 8 in the betting market has yet to win a race with 83% of the winners being in the top 5 of the betting market.
All of this information is going to help us to narrow down the field to a list of contenders which we can then look at in more detail. A quick summary shows us that we are looking for gelded and entire horses aged 6 or less which do not like to lead and are ideally ranked in the top 3 of the Official Ratings.
Removing all runners aged 9 or older reduces the field to 29 immediately. Next I shall remove any runners that are not entire horses or gelded horses, which reduces our list significantly to sixteen runners. We are getting closer to a manageable figure to analyse in more detail. It is important at this point to check with the antepost betting market (although it is not a fully formed market) to make sure that none of the runners we have removed so far are in the top 7 of the betting market. Any that are we will want to put back into our contenders list for analysis.
We are left with 20 runners who are Age Of Aquarius, Akmal, Ask, Balius, Bannaby, Campanologist, Darley Sun, Eastern Anthem, Electrolyser, Kasbah Bliss, Kite Wood, Manifest, Mourilyan, Purple Moon, Rite Of Passage, Royal And Regal, Sabotage, Saptapadi, Tastahil and Yes Mr President.
There are 4 runners which have been returned to our contenders list based on their odds. Of the runners left there are five which are in the top seven ranked by Official Ratings and six runners who do not have an Official Rating.
We shall begin by looking in more detail at the 5 runners with an Official Rating who are left in our contenders list. The runners are Ask, Balius, Eastern Anthem, Kite Wood and Purple Moon.
Ask
Ask is a course winner but will not have raced for 235 days which is of concern, although before this long break he was performing very well and is trained by Sir Michael Stoute who certainly knows when to put a horse into a race. Sir Michael Stoute has yet to win a Gold Cup though. A strong preference is shown for long breaks with a significant amount of them during his career and always coming back with a win after one. His longest race has been 16 furlongs and being asked to take part in a 20 furlong race for the first time could be a reason not to bet. He likes to be near the leaders but not leading could be an advantage for Ask. Although performing well on firm ground the preference seems to be for good and good/soft going. This is definitely a horse to watch, especially if the ground conditions are in favour which may give him a slight edge.
Balius
Coming from the Godolphin stable and also having been on a long break, Balius seems to have had declining form. 2006 – 2007 was clearly this horse’s heyday and since moving up in class he has not been performing as well. The longest distance yet raced by Balius is 12 furlongs and this is a large leap to take. Whether he has the stamina to finish is of some concern. Although Balius is clearly a strong runner there are some concerns as to his ability to contend in a race of this class at a distance that is nearly double his longest raced so far. The current antepost odds of $51 would confirm this opinion and unless a significant shortening of his odds to less than $20 happens on the day he can probably be removed from the contenders list.
Eastern Anthem
Another Godolphin runner and one that has accrued over two million pounds in earnings in just 16 races! This is over £125,000 per race on average. Finishing in the top 3 in 81.25% of his races, Eastern Anthem has to be taken seriously. He seems to like settling in the rear which is a big benefit in this race and although being 8 furlongs longer than he has raced previously will hold him in good stead. He has raced on going conditions from soft to firm and being successful on all of them and this indicates that he is a very versatile player which will go in his favour for his first 20 furlong race, hopefully allowing him to adapt to it quickly. Everything indicates that he could perform well in the Gold Cup and is definitely one to watch.
Kite Wood
Yet another contender from the Godolphin stables this time with just nine races to his name. Should he win the race he would be the first colt in twelve years to have won. Although less experienced his performance record is excellent having won numerous Group 1 and Group 2 races already. Out of the six races Frankie Dettori has ridden him for all six of them which suggest that if he chooses this horse it is likely to be a serious contender. He has a preference for being at the front of the race which is a concern over a race this long and although having won at a 16 furlong race from the front an extra 4 furlongs could prove to be too far, especially if the pace is fast. Kite Wood could be a good selection for an each-way bet although I would be less inclined if Frankie Dettori was not riding him on the day.
Purple Moon
Purple Moon is a seven year old runner that has not won a race since 2007, and has never won a Group 1 race. This suggests that he may be running in a class that is higher than he can compete in. He is unlikely to be a front-runner which is a good sign but although coming second in a number of races he seems to be un-keen to win, usually losing out by a short-head or ½ length. These reasons alone give me enough concern not to consider him as a contender.
These five are the main contenders but it is important to take a briefer look at those runners who do not have an Official Rating but are in the first 5 of the antepost betting market.
Age Of Aquarius
Currently Age Of Aquarius is second in the betting with odds of $6. Having never won a Group 1 race and his only second being ‘one pace’, I would suggest that his odds are based on his form of two first and three second positions out of seven races run to date. The two winning races were in a significantly lower class and although he performed well I would be concerned if he could compete in a race of this level. Liking to track the leaders and not being able to find the extra needed in 12, 13 and 14 furlong races gives me concerns as to whether he will be able to find it this time out.
Kasbah Bliss
A very experienced horse of 47 races and performing well recently shows initial promise. Racing in the middle and just missing out on the win by short distances suggests that this runner has what it takes to win. Having run in 20 furlong and longer races before and won, proves that Kasbah Bliss has the stamina necessary to win this race. Winning on both good and soft ground tells us that he is comfortable on either but a slight preference for soft is clear and if the going conforms on the day then this may be all the edge he requires to win. Being well weighted Kasbah Bliss is a definite contender in the race.
Final Thoughts…
Having taken a deep look at the race, Kasbah Bliss would be the strongest contender with Ask and Eastern Anthem also possible winners. Kite Wood has a good chance if Frankie Dettori is riding him but is likely to need the experienced jockey in order to propel him to the winning line. Kasbah Bliss would be my antepost selection with possible each-ways on the others although the odds on Kasbah Bliss, at $8, are not significant enough to force me into this position. Alternatively waiting until the day and taking a look at the market closer could be beneficial. Any runners that haven’t been discussed and are in the top 5 of the betting market pre-race would need to be looked at before a final decision is made but current preference is for Kasbah Bliss.
Bet offer…
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I have spent a bit of time going through your posts, more than I should have but I must say, its worth it!