***The Darley July Cup Morning Update 9/7/2010***
With the race happening today the field has now been reduced to just 14 runners, a huge difference from the 45 declarations.
Starspangledbanner is still the favourite at $2.50 and while he is the one that the other runners are looking to beat his odds are still too low for me to risk a bet on him in this race.
Canford Cliffs and Paco Boy are no longer running which has removed two of our contenders. With Frankie Dettori on Fleeting Spirit this is certainly a strong choice at current odds of $5.
Society Rock should be in the contention, while unlikely to beat Starspangledbanner he may well have a chance against Kinsale King and this suggests an each-way bet at high odds of $17 could bring in a tidy profit.
We didn’t mention Kingsgate Native before who is running with Ryan Moore as his jockey. He is lightly raced and won the Golden Jubilee two years ago. He has won a Group 1 race at the distance and on the ground conditions and if in top form could certainly be a contender.
Ultimately the race is likely to be between the top three in the betting field, Starspangledbanner, Fleeting Spirit and Kinsale King with Society Rock and Kingsgate Native possible outsiders. I would suggest that a dutch bet across the top three favourites using Starspangeldbanner as a cover bet would be good in this race. A separate each-way on Society Rock and Kingsgate Native may also be suggested if you prefer to bet on an outsider’s chance.
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There are currently a mammoth forty five entries for this Group 1, six furlong sprint. With a prize fund of £400,000 it is one of the most valuable and prestigious sprint events in the UK. Established in 1876 the race was won for its first two years of life by a colt bred by Queen Victoria.
Click here for the latest Newmarket – July Cup Odds.
With forty five declared runners we need to remove a large number quickly in order to get a list of contenders to look at in more detail. This is often the case when looking at big races sometime before the final declarations are available.
Since this is a six furlong sprint and time is going to be very important I am going to use speed figures in order to narrow down our contenders. We know that only the fastest runners are going to be able to contend in this race and with an average speed figure of 112. I am immediately going to remove any runners that do not even meet the average, as their chance of contention is small.
This immediately removes 20 runners from the field and hopefully a number of these will be removed from racing before the race.
Over the past twelve years all but one of the winners has been aged between three and five years old. This removes another four runners from the field. We now have twenty one runners left and I still think we need to remove some more in order to take a closer look at the remaining runners.
Again over the last twelve years all winners, except for one, have had a break of between fifteen and twenty eight days before coming into this major race. This suggests that too short a rest period means that the horse is tired and unable to compete in this level and too long may possibly have given the runner time to get out of practice with racing and need a few races before being able to compete at this level again.
Applying this only removed two runners but has helped by bringing us to nineteen possibilities. We are now going to go back to the all-important speed that is required to win this race. The average speed figure of these contenders is now a lot higher than previously, having removed all the slowest horses. It is now sitting at 124. I shall remove any contenders that are some way below this rating.
With fifteen runners left, history has told us that very seldom do winners with odds over 12 win this race we shall remove those with higher odds. This will need to be double checked on the day of the race though to make sure that none have steamed in.
The eight runners that we shall look at in more detail are Paco Boy, Rip Van Winkle, Fleeting Spirit, Serious Attitude, Canford Cliffs, Free Judgement, Society Rock, Steinbeck and although the speed rating is low Starspangledbanner should also be considered. He is currently the favourite at $3.50 after his win twenty days ago at Ascot.
Paco Boy
There is no doubt that Paco Boy is an excellent runner and his form shows him to be in good shape. He came fourth last year in this race just 2 ¾ lengths from the winner and is likely to be hoping to take the glory this time around. He has already proven that he can be competitive in this race and with good races so far this year it would be foolish not to consider him seriously.
Rip Van Winkle
Rip Van Winkle is an Irish runner whose last two races have not been good. Although running in a six furlong race for the first time this distance shouldn’t faze him. The concern is that if he gets held up then he is unlikely to win, winning from the rear has proven not to be his strength. He is not quite the level of some of the other runners in this race and if there is a large field on the day then this is a good reason to stay away.
Fleeting Spirit
The winner of last year’s Darley July Cup’s recent performances have not been good. There is a possible pattern of a series of poor races before winning a big race and he certainly has the ability to do so. The market is likely to be offering poor value as he was last year’s winner and so this on its own is enough to stay away from betting him. My main concern is, while he is likely to be in the competition, whether he can do enough to win a race with such a high quality of runners in it again.
Serious Attitude
Serious Attitude hasn’t been competitive in a race even near this quality since October 2008. He was beaten a long way by Starspangledbanner at Ascot earlier this year and these two reasons alone are enough to remove him from the contenders. His Official Rating is lower than a lot of runners and his speed figure is not as high as some. All of this is makes me confident in removing him from our contender list.
Canford Cliffs
A young runner but has performed well having already earned over £450,000 in seven races. In May he won by three lengths which is a good distance. He has one of the highest speed ratings which show that he certainly has the speed to take this race. His current odds of $55 seem to be far higher than he should be and an each-way bet seems excellent value.
Free Judgement
As a general rule Free Judgement does not look to be able to stand up to the competition in this race. His second place in the Abu Dhabi Irish 2,000 Guineas looks good on paper but in reality he had no chance with the winner. He has even failed to be competitive in a Group 3 race earlier this year where, although the soft ground would have had an effect, you would hope that a runner being entered into a race of this class would be able to contend. It is unlikely that Free Judgement is going to be able to be competitive in this race.
Society Rock
Beaten by Starspangledbanner at Ascot this year, Society Rock is another relatively new runner with just seven runs. He has done well earning just under £300,000 over these races but this is not as good as Canford Cliffs. Only beaten 1 ¾ lengths by Starspangledbanner shows that Society Rock definitely has the ability to contend but I think it unlikely that he will be able to win this race. A good each-way profit may be the ideal for this runner.
Steinbeck
With just four races under his belt and a steadily decreasing performance Steinbeck is unlikely to contend in this race. His last two races were won by Canford Cliffs who beat him by five and six lengths and although he has the speed it seems that he has not got the class to race at this level, at least not yet. I would not suggest that you risked any of your money on this runner.
Starspangledbanner and Kinsale King
Coming back to race each other after Ascot earlier this year these two runners are likely to be the focus of the press in the lead up to the race. Starspangledbanner is currently the favourite with odds of $3.50 while Kinsale King is priced at $13.00.
The rivalry is going to be fierce and although Kinsale King lost earlier this year, his performance generally seems to be much less volatile. Kinsale King’s trainer has also been saying that he is in fine form and the third place at Ascot proved to be excellent for him. He is expecting him to perform well in this race and looks like he will be using Starspangledbanner to set the pace before hopefully spurring on to overtake him at the last. The concern is the much lower speed rating that Kinsale King has.
Starspangledbanner is certainly coming with the aim to win and he will no doubt have a role to play but at those odds I am not sure I would like to take the chance. There are too many other runners that have the ability to contend in this race and these are going to be overlooked because of Starspangeldbanner, Kinsale King and last year’s winner, Fleeting Spirit, running against each other. He will definitely be racing hard but needs to offer more value for me to suggest a bet.
Overview
At this stage it looks like it is going to be a very exciting race that could go to anybody. Paco Boy is high on my list as is Canford Cliffs as an outsider at seemingly very high odds. Society Rock is another each-way possibility. Other than that I would stay away from Starspangledbanner unless his odds drift and would possibly opt for Fleeting Spirit, if forced, to be the strongest contender from the top three favourites.
Closer to the date when the betting market starts to form, jockeys selections have been made and trainers are starting to talk we will be able to have a much stronger idea of which runners our final bets are going to go on. I shall update this preview closer to the time when more information is available and the field has thinned.